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2

Fortunate

2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 57

Lingfield · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1) (AWT) · 7f 1y

#1

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

93%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

May Chester seller form is good (fourth behind a trio now rated in the 80s) and she ran her best race since when third in 6f turf maiden here 10 days ago. Place claims again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 06/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 5f21y Std 1286/0444 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR - · 5f10y Gd 12517/0444 @ Kempton 20/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 6f Sta 12220/0544 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 6f17y Gd 12530/0543 @ Goodwood 07/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 5f Sft 122 · HIGHER CLASS7/0636 @ Catterick 08/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 60 · 5f GF 130 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 60 par8/076OR 605 @ Lingfield 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 57 · 6f GF 128 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 57 par25/075OR 57projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Lingfield53rd4th−1
2026-07-08Catterick69th11th−2
2026-06-07Goodwood35th4th+1
2026-05-30Chester44th4th0
2026-05-20Kempton410th10th0
2026-04-17Bath413th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0430/0525/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength53%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/04/20266th10/147%29%-0.19
17/04/202613th11/142%0%-0.42
20/05/202610th80/10%0%0.00
30/05/20264th150/10%73%+0.73
07/06/20265th16/116%0%-0.16
08/07/20269th18/15%0%-0.05
25/07/20263rd28/10%67%+0.67