9
Balon D'or
5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 60
Lingfield · John Cunliffe OBF 80th Birthday Handicap (AWT) · 6f 1y
#10
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength65%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-06-04 | Lingfield | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Lingfield | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Lingfield | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-12-31 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-08 | Lingfield | 4 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength14%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 20/09/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 20/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 08/12/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/12/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 24/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 20/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 09/07/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |