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10

Elvetham

4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 58

Lingfield · John Cunliffe OBF 80th Birthday Handicap (AWT) · 6f 1y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won twice on the all-weather this spring and posted string of fine placed efforts thereafter. Not been in quite same form more recently, however.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 56 · 6f Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 56 par27/035OR 566 @ Lingfield 30/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 55 · 6f1y Std 135 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Kempton 06/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 55 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 55 par6/056OR 556 @ Windsor 23/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 60 · 6f12y GF 130 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 60 · 6f Gd 131 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 60 par5/066OR 606 @ Yarmouth 10/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 60 · 6f3y Sft 131 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 60 · 6f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 60 par19/065OR 606 @ Leicester 04/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 59 · 6f GF 137 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Epsom Downs 30/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 58 · 6f3y GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 58 par30/075OR 58projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-30Epsom Downs56th5th+1
2026-07-04Leicester63rd3rd0
2026-06-19Newmarket512th11th+1
2026-06-10Yarmouth62nd2nd0
2026-06-05Thirsk63rd3rd0
2026-05-23Windsor63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0323/0519/0630/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength30%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/03/20267th28/10%25%+0.25
30/04/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
06/05/20263rd13/266%80%+0.14
23/05/20263rd22/10%85%+0.85
05/06/20263rd7/163%78%+0.15
10/06/20262nd5/174%88%+0.14
19/06/202612th8/158%27%-0.31
04/07/20263rd9/276%50%-0.26
30/07/20266th4/179%17%-0.62