2
Express Train
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 63
Lingfield · John Cunliffe OBF 80th Birthday Handicap (AWT) · 6f 1y
#9
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength67%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Kempton | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-01-30 | Southwell | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Newcastle | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-02 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-10 | Kempton | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-07-24 | Yarmouth | 4 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength13%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/02/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 07/06/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 05/07/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 24/07/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 10/12/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 02/01/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 30/01/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 02/07/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |