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4

Federal Envoy

5yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 63

Lingfield · John Cunliffe OBF 80th Birthday Handicap (AWT) · 6f 1y

#8

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

All 3 wins over 7f at Southwell. Disappointed at Yarmouth latest but had made positive start for new yard at Ripon previously and must enter calculations. Cheekpieces back on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ayr 09/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 72 · 7f50y Hvy 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/10/2025 · OR 72 par9/105OR 725 @ Southwell 21/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 75 · 7f14y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/11/2025 · OR 75 par5 @ Southwell 19/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 74 · 7f14y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 74 par19/125OR 745 @ Southwell 30/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 72 · 7f14y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Southwell 20/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 70 · 7f14y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/02/2026 · OR 70 par20/025OR 704 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 68 · 6f Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 68 par6 @ Southwell 07/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 65 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 65 par7/046OR 656 @ Ripon 18/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 57 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Yarmouth 02/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 58 · 7f3y GF 138 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 58 par2/076OR 58projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-02Yarmouth66th6th0
2026-06-18Ripon62nd2nd0
2026-04-07Southwell65th5th0
2026-03-12Newcastle410th8th+2
2026-02-20Southwell59th8th+1
2026-01-30Southwell56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/1030/017/042/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength73%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/10/20258th12/137%0%-0.37
21/11/202511th13/266%17%-0.49
19/12/20254th7/282%50%-0.32
30/01/20266th13/266%55%-0.11
20/02/20269th13/266%27%-0.39
12/03/202610th22/10%0%0.00
07/04/20265th11/271%56%-0.15
18/06/20262nd7/491%83%-0.07
02/07/20266th11/893%38%-0.55