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8

Phoenix Moon

5yo Mare · 9-5 · OR 61

Lingfield · John Cunliffe OBF 80th Birthday Handicap (AWT) · 6f 1y

#4

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Disappointed the last twice but all 4 career victories have come on all-weather here so return to form could be on the cards.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 08/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 54 · 6f1y Std 127 · beat its mark08/09/2025 · OR 54 par8/096OR 545 @ Southwell 29/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 59 · 6f16y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 59 par5 @ Lingfield 27/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 61 · 6f1y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 61 par27/105OR 615 @ Lingfield 25/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 61 · 6f1y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/03/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Nottingham 26/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 64 · 6f18y Goo 133 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 64 par26/046OR 646 @ Windsor 07/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 64 · 6f12y Goo 134 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Bath 26/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 64 · 5f160y Fm 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 64 par26/055OR 645 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 64 · 6f Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Newbury 23/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 63 · 6f GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 63 par23/075OR 63projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23Newbury58th7th+1
2026-06-09Salisbury58th7th+1
2026-05-26Bath53rd2nd+1
2026-05-07Windsor62nd2nd0
2026-04-26Nottingham64th4th0
2026-03-25Lingfield51st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0925/0326/0523/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 11
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/09/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
29/09/20252nd7/282%92%+0.10
27/10/20254th7/163%40%-0.23
25/03/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
26/04/20264th3/184%50%-0.34
07/05/20262nd11/271%86%+0.15
26/05/20263rd9/276%50%-0.26
09/06/20268th16/116%22%+0.06
23/07/20268th18/15%0%-0.05