1
Reposado
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 65
Lingfield · John Cunliffe OBF 80th Birthday Handicap (AWT) · 6f 1y
#11
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength35%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.1
Today: 6
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Bellewstown | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-06-18 | Leopardstown | BHA69 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Dundalk | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-05-04 | Curragh | BHA69 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Curragh | BHA65 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Naas | BHA65 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 20/02/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 06/03/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 22/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.17 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 95% | +0.53 |
| 04/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 95% | +0.24 |
| 26/05/2026 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 13% | -0.73 |
| 18/06/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 03/07/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |