5
Twilight Madness
8yo Horse · 9-7 · OR 63
Lingfield · John Cunliffe OBF 80th Birthday Handicap (AWT) · 6f 1y
#5
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength52%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Kempton | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Bath | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-02 | Kempton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 30/01/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 23/02/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 78% | +0.12 |
| 02/03/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 16/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 05/04/2026 | 1st | 18/5 | 81% | 100% | +0.19 |
| 08/04/2026 | 9th | 11/8 | 93% | 20% | -0.73 |
| 17/04/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 17/07/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |