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12

Vitalline

8yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 52

Lingfield · John Cunliffe OBF 80th Birthday Handicap (AWT) · 6f 1y

#7

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 7f classified event at Kempton in March and bounced back to form with victory in a 13-runner handicap at Newcastle (6f) in June. Disappointed at Southwell since but remains feasibly treated.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Chelmsford City 21/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 48 · 7f Std 125 · beat its mark21/02/2026 · OR 48 par21/026OR 486 @ Kempton 04/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 47 · 7f Sta 135 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Wolverhampton 10/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 47 · 6f20y Std 139 · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 47 par10/036OR 476 @ Kempton 25/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 52 · 6f Sta 127 · beat its mark25/03/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Kempton 08/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 51 · 6f Sta 122 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 51 par8/046OR 516 @ Lingfield 27/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 50 · 7f1y Std 120 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Wolverhampton 02/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 49 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 49 par2/066OR 496 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 47 · 6f Sta 127 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 47 par5 @ Southwell 05/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 52 · 7f14y Std 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 52 par5/075OR 52projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-05Southwell59th8th+1
2026-06-26Newcastle61st1st0
2026-06-02Wolverhampton65th5th0
2026-04-27Lingfield68th8th0
2026-04-08Kempton66th6th0
2026-03-25Kempton610th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0225/032/065/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength59%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/02/20265th13/266%50%-0.16
04/03/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
10/03/20265th15/890%50%-0.40
25/03/202610th13/266%10%-0.56
08/04/20266th40/10%50%+0.50
27/04/20268th20/10%22%+0.22
02/06/20265th12/137%56%+0.19
26/06/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
05/07/20269th20/10%11%+0.11