Scarlet Moon
4yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 80
Lingfield · Trusted Betting Site Comparison gambling.com Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Goodwood | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Ludlow | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Stratford | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Musselburgh | 1 | 3rd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-01-01 | Musselburgh | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-06 | Aintree | 1 | 4th | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 4.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 19/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/7 | 97% | 33% | -0.64 |
| 04/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 06/12/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 01/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 31/01/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 09/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 01/05/2026 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |