4
Tabasko
3yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 73
Lingfield · Trusted Betting Site Comparison gambling.com Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Doncaster | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Newbury | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Haydock | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 4
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength68%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 24/11/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |