2
Boston Run
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 55
Lingfield · Best Betting Sites At gambling.com Handicap · 1m 3f 133y
#6
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength56%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Lingfield | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Kempton | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-12-01 | Kempton | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Lingfield | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-09-08 | Windsor | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength44%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2025 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 46% | +0.04 |
| 10/07/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 09/08/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 08/09/2025 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 10% | -0.48 |
| 20/11/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 01/12/2025 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 17/12/2025 | 11th | 150/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 03/01/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |