5
D Day Major Winter
4yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 45
Lingfield · Download The At The Races App Handicap · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Chepstow | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Brighton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Kempton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-12 | Lingfield | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-07-28 | Windsor | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-22 | Ffos Las | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/2025 | 7th | 150/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 23/05/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 11/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 91% | +0.49 |
| 22/06/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 13% | -0.64 |
| 28/07/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 90% | +0.74 |
| 12/08/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |
| 18/09/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 22/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 08/07/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |