3
Offiah's Boy
5yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 51
Lingfield · Download The At The Races App Handicap · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
56%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Bath | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Bath | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bath | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Chepstow | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Taunton | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 14/10/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 20/11/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 11/12/2025 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 02/01/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 15/06/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 33% | -0.09 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 29% | -0.27 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |