2
Align
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 75
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength66%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 15/01/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 21/02/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 26/03/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 08/04/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |