Arak
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 79
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.20 |
| 17/08/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 07/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 13/04/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |