Hoylake
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 73
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2025-10-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-09-05 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-07-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-06-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2024 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 21/11/2024 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 14/12/2024 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 24/06/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/07/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/09/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 23/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 24/12/2025 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |