14
North Warden
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 73
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength25%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 15/08/2025 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 20% | -0.71 |
| 26/09/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 11/10/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 14/11/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 63% | -0.32 |
| 02/07/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |