States United
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 84
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 01/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 08/11/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 63% | -0.20 |
| 21/12/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |