Dropkick Murphy

6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 86

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f

Rank

Odds

11/10

Win Prob

30%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.1

Today:

Class gap: +0.4

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-03	Mountaineer	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-07-09	Mountaineer	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2026-06-24	Mountaineer	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-05-11	Mountaineer	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2026-01-15	Mahoning Valley	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2025-12-20	Mahoning Valley	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 11

▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price

Trend▬

Strength75%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 11.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
26/10/2025	2nd	6/1	68%	80%	+0.12
04/11/2025	1st	2/1	89%	100%	+0.11
24/11/2025	1st	4/9	98%	100%	+0.02
20/12/2025	6th	13/2	66%	17%	-0.49
15/01/2026	6th	3/1	84%	0%	-0.84
11/05/2026	6th	10/1	47%	0%	-0.47
24/06/2026	1st	15/2	61%	100%	+0.39
09/07/2026	2nd	7/1	63%	80%	+0.17
03/08/2026	2nd	11/10	94%	67%	-0.28