4
Kiltoom
8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 79
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength72%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/10/2025 | 4th | 1/2 | 97% | 40% | -0.57 |
| 11/11/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 08/12/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |