8
Poppy's Pride
8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 90
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f
#10
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-17 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-22 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 17/11/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 18/12/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 05/01/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 22/01/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 17/02/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 02/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 16/03/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |