5
Baby Dog
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 56
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength64%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-09-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength14%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/2024 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 08/08/2024 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 20/05/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/07/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 17/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 19/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |