3
Wetlands Willy
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 63
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength68%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-07-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-08-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-08-06 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength63%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 16/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 06/08/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 20/08/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 17/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 01/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |