1
Irish Victory
6yo Mare · 8-6 · OR 89
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-12 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2024 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 14/10/2024 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 10/06/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 12/08/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 10/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 29/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/13 | 97% | 50% | -0.47 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |