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3

The Sinner Is You

10yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 86

Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 29/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 89 · 6f 123 · beat its mark29/07/2025 · OR 89 par29/07C8OR 89C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 13/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 89 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark13/08/2025 · OR 89 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 03/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 89 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark03/09/2025 · OR 89 par3/09C8OR 89C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 10/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 90 · 5f110y 123 · below its mark10/09/2025 · OR 90 parC7 @ Presque Isle Downs 01/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 89 · 6f110y Fas 123 · below its mark01/10/2025 · OR 89 par1/10C7OR 89C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 23/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 89 · 6f110y 123 · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 89 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 27/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 83 · 6f 125 · below its mark27/05/2026 · OR 83 par27/05C8OR 83C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 15/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 82 · 5f110y 125 · below its mark15/06/2026 · OR 82 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 80 · 1m70y 125 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 80 par22/06C8OR 80projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-22Presque Isle Downs?5th6th−1
2026-06-15Presque Isle Downs?3rd4th−1
2026-05-27Presque Isle Downs?3rd4th−1
2025-10-23Presque Isle Downs?6th7th−1
2025-10-01Presque Isle Downs?5th5th0
2025-09-10Presque Isle Downs?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0710/0927/0522/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/07/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
13/08/20252nd7/282%86%+0.04
03/09/20254th7/282%50%-0.32
10/09/20255th6/492%20%-0.72
01/10/20255th25/10%20%+0.20
23/10/20256th10/147%38%-0.10
27/05/20263rd10/382%50%-0.32
15/06/20263rd6/492%60%-0.32
22/06/20265th3/184%33%-0.51