IvyArcIvyArc
6

Vinsanity

5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 92

Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

53%

Place Prob

41%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength18%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 03/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 88 · 6f 118 · below its mark03/01/2026 · OR 88 par3/01C8OR 88C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 31/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 90 · 7f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/01/2026 · OR 90 parC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 14/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 89 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 89 par14/02C6OR 89C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 11/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 93 · 6f 118 · below its mark11/03/2026 · OR 93 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 27/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 93 · 7f 122 · below its mark27/03/2026 · OR 93 par27/03C8OR 93C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 18/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 83 · 5f110y 123 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 83 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 01/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 85 · 6f 123 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 85 par1/06C8OR 85C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 29/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 87 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 87 parC7 @ Presque Isle Downs 21/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 88 · 6f 125 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 88 par21/07C7OR 88projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-21Presque Isle Downs?1st1st0
2026-06-29Presque Isle Downs?1st-1th+2
2026-06-01Presque Isle Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-05-18Presque Isle Downs?2nd3rd−1
2026-03-27Tampa Bay Downs?4th5th−1
2026-03-11Tampa Bay Downs?7th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0111/031/0621/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength78%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/01/20264th20/10%50%+0.50
31/01/20266th16/116%50%+0.34
14/02/20265th10/147%50%+0.03
11/03/20267th11/486%14%-0.71
27/03/20264th8/1196%67%-0.30
18/05/20262nd2/189%83%-0.06
01/06/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
29/06/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
21/07/20261st11/486%100%+0.14