3
Bet On Bret
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 72
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength42%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 45% | -0.31 |
| 22/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 12/02/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 70% | +0.12 |
| 04/03/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 26/03/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |