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9yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 86

Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 09/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 95 · 1m70y 123 · below its mark09/07/2025 · OR 95 par9/07C8OR 95C7 @ Presque Isle Downs 21/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 94 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/07/2025 · OR 94 parC7 @ Presque Isle Downs 05/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 93 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/08/2025 · OR 93 par5/08C7OR 93C7 @ Presque Isle Downs 25/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 92 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2025 · OR 92 parC7 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 91 · 6f110y 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/09/2025 · OR 91 par22/09C7OR 91C7 @ Presque Isle Downs 01/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 92 · 6f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/10/2025 · OR 92 parC7 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 92 · 1m110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/10/2025 · OR 92 par22/10C7OR 92C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 06/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 86 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 86 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 86 · 6f 123 · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 86 par22/07C8OR 86projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-22Presque Isle Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-07-06Presque Isle Downs?3rd3rd0
2025-10-22Presque Isle Downs?6th5th+1
2025-10-01Presque Isle Downs?3rd2nd+1
2025-09-22Presque Isle Downs?5th4th+1
2025-08-25Presque Isle Downs?1st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0725/0822/1022/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength77%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/07/20252nd5/174%86%+0.12
21/07/20255th5/287%33%-0.54
05/08/20253rd5/287%67%-0.20
25/08/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
22/09/20255th6/168%0%-0.68
01/10/20253rd14/126%60%+0.34
22/10/20256th16/116%0%-0.16
06/07/20263rd13/266%50%-0.16
22/07/20262nd3/184%75%-0.09