IvyArcIvyArc
2

Triple Start

6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 88

Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

95%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 21/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 83 · 1m70y Fas 125 · beat its mark21/07/2025 · OR 83 par21/07C8OR 83C7 @ Mountaineer 04/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 91 · 1m3f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/08/2025 · OR 91 parC7 @ Mountaineer 19/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 91 · 1m3f Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/08/2025 · OR 91 par19/08C7OR 91C7 @ Mountaineer 14/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 93 · 1m3f Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/09/2025 · OR 93 parC8 @ Mountaineer 07/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 88 · 1m 123 · below its mark07/10/2025 · OR 88 par7/10C8OR 88C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 24/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 89 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 89 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 03/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 77 · 1m 123 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 77 par3/06C8OR 77C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 76 · 1m70y 125 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 76 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 81 · 1m70y 123 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 81 par22/07C8OR 81projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-22Presque Isle Downs?1st1st0
2026-06-22Presque Isle Downs?1st1st0
2026-06-03Presque Isle Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-04-24Tampa Bay Downs?10th10th0
2025-10-07Mountaineer?6th6th0
2025-09-14Mountaineer?6th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0714/093/0622/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength99%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/07/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
04/08/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
19/08/20253rd11/1094%60%-0.34
14/09/20256th10/382%29%-0.54
07/10/20256th16/116%0%-0.16
24/04/202610th20/10%0%0.00
03/06/20262nd16/116%80%+0.64
22/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
22/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29