2
Alexander K
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 50
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2025 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 13/12/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 04/01/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 14/01/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 04/02/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 15/02/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 25% | -0.68 |