Fly In The Mystic

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 77

Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

21%

Place Prob

34%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼2

Strength66%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.8

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-24	Penn National	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0
2026-06-03	Presque Isle Downs	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0
2026-05-18	Presque Isle Downs	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8
2025-08-26	Presque Isle Downs	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 6

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength18%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
26/08/2025	3rd	20/1	0%	50%	+0.50
18/05/2026	3rd	11/2	71%	71%	+0.00
03/06/2026	1st	5/4	93%	100%	+0.07
24/06/2026	4th	20/1	0%	40%	+0.40