2
Miss Thalia
3yo Filly · 8-1 · OR 77
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
33%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 19/09/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 04/01/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 23/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 14/07/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |