4
American Mink
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 59
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-01-02 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-10-17 | Meadowlands | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 14/09/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 17/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 28/11/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 02/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |
| 17/01/2026 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 10% | -0.53 |
| 11/03/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 29/04/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |