3
Collective Nation
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 64
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-07-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-06-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 17/04/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 02/05/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 06/06/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/07/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 17/12/2025 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |