5
Lightning Lane
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 63
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
66%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 01/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 22/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 10/11/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 12/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |