2
Serene Waters
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 56
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-02-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2024 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 08/12/2024 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 01/01/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 82% | -0.05 |
| 07/02/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 22/02/2025 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 70% | -0.24 |
| 28/10/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 03/07/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 27/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |