7
Sweet Carol James
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 61
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength26%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 03/11/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 63% | -0.27 |
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |