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Goodmancon

6yo Gelding · 11-12

Roscommon · Curragh To Curragh Charity Cycle On Saturday, August 29th Maiden Hurdle · 2m 4f 46y

#16

Rank

Odds

80/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Plenty of chances without winning in bumpers, but placed on hurdling debut in April and was in the process of showing improved form when falling 2 out in maiden at Limerick (2½m) last month, having just moved into second when departing.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength6%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Killarney 12/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 16812/05C?C0 @ Tramore 30/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 2m Goo 168C0 @ Killarney 17/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 2m1f Yie 16817/07C?C0 @ Tramore 15/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 2m80y Gd 168C0 @ Tramore 09/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 2m Yie 1689/10C?C0 @ Clonmel 06/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 2m157y Sft 168C8 @ Tramore 20/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 2m80y Goo 15820/04C8C8 @ Killarney 09/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 158C0 @ Tramore 29/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 2m Goo 16829/05C?projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-02Limerick?0
2026-05-29Tramore?5th5th0
2026-05-09Killarney?8th8th0
2026-04-20Tramore?3rd3rd0
2025-11-06Clonmel?4th4th0
2025-10-09Tramore?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0515/0820/0429/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength67%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/05/20257th66/10%14%+0.14
30/05/20254th66/10%73%+0.73
17/07/20255th11/271%33%-0.38
15/08/20256th28/10%44%+0.44
09/10/20257th33/10%14%+0.14
06/11/20254th66/10%67%+0.67
20/04/20263rd16/116%80%+0.64
09/05/20268th50/10%50%+0.50
29/05/20265th28/10%60%+0.60