12
Louve D'arc
5yo Mare · 11-5
Roscommon · Curragh To Curragh Charity Cycle On Saturday, August 29th Maiden Hurdle · 2m 4f 46y
#10
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼7
Strength33%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.8
Today:
Class gap: +7.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Down Royal | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Navan | 1 | 7th | -2th | +7 |
| 2025-10-26 | Galway | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength8%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 16/11/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 17/03/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 42% | -0.00 |