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6

Captain Hanley

6yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 98

Roscommon · James Lohan Engineering Excellence Maiden Hurdle · 1m 7f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair maiden at best on the Flat and matched that level when runner-up on hurdling debut in a Clonmel maiden (2½m) in May. Not seen to best effect both completed outings since in this sphere, before making the frame back on the level last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength83%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: BHA51
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA55 @ Dundalk 13/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 55 · 1m2f150y Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/01/2026 · OR 55 par13/0155OR 55BHA54 @ Dundalk 06/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 54 · 1m4f Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 54 parBHA52 @ Dundalk 06/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 52 · 1m4f Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 52 par6/0352OR 52BHA52 @ Dundalk 27/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 52 · 1m2f150y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 52 parBHA52 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 52 · 1m3f190y Yie 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 52 par25/0452OR 52C8 @ Clonmel 14/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR - · 2m3f116y Goo 158C8 @ Punchestown 07/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 2m7f116y Goo 1667/06C8C8 @ Wexford 03/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 2m4f50y Gd 166BHA51 @ Tramore 07/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 51 · 2m Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 51 par7/0751OR 51projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-07TramoreBHA514th1st+3
2026-07-03Wexford?6th6th0
2026-06-07Punchestown?2nd2nd0
2026-05-31Kilbeggan?0
2026-05-14Clonmel?2nd2nd0
2026-04-25LimerickBHA526th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0127/037/067/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/01/20266th9/276%62%-0.15
06/02/20264th3/184%67%-0.18
06/03/20262nd7/163%92%+0.29
27/03/20265th7/491%50%-0.41
25/04/20266th7/163%67%+0.04
14/05/20262nd22/10%94%+0.94
07/06/20262nd7/163%90%+0.27
03/07/20266th8/158%62%+0.04
07/07/20264th9/276%73%-0.04