IvyArcIvyArc
1

Clay Pigeons

6yo Gelding · 11-12

Roscommon · James Lohan Engineering Excellence Maiden Hurdle · 1m 7f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/11

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

92%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Point winner who impressed when winning both starts in bumpers (trained by Emmet Mullins on Rules debut). Held back by inexperience when second in a Fakenham maiden hurdle (2½m) in January, but he's a likely improver for his leading yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼4
Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 1.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: +3.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Cork 21/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 2m3f Yie 16821/04C?5 @ Catterick 16/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m7f156y Goo 163 · HIGHER CLASS16/1254 @ Fakenham 18/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 2m4f1y Goo 162 · HIGHER CLASS18/014projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-01-18Fakenham42nd-3th+4
2025-12-16Catterick51st-3th+3
2025-04-21Cork?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0416/1218/01
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 19
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength70%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/04/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
16/12/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
18/01/20262nd4/1198%83%-0.15