12
Direct Approach
4yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 102
Roscommon · James Lohan Engineering Excellence Maiden Hurdle · 1m 7f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Downpatrick | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-31 | Punchestown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Gowran Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Navan | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Curragh | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength54%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2014 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 29/01/2015 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 24/03/2015 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 23/08/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 06/09/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 31/12/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/07/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 38% | -0.18 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |