Earthwatch
4yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 104
Roscommon · James Lohan Engineering Excellence Maiden Hurdle · 1m 7f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Curragh | BHA76 | 11th | 11th | +0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Clonmel | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-09 | Killarney | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Cork | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Dundalk | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 30/07/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 07/09/2025 | 16th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 15/10/2025 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 13% | -0.30 |
| 03/12/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 05/04/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 27/06/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 79% | +0.73 |