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4

William F Browne

4yo Gelding · 11-9

Roscommon · James Lohan Engineering Excellence Maiden Hurdle · 1m 7f 110y

#15

Rank

Odds

300/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair up to 1m on the Flat but not always the stoutest of finishers. Making third start over hurdles, showed more than previously when fifth of 11 in novice at Galway (17f) 8 days ago, though is still to convince with his stamina.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength81%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 7.6)

Highest class: BHA58
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA66 @ Bellewstown 01/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 66 · 7f205y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/10/2025 · OR 66 par1/1066OR 66BHA63 @ Dundalk 29/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 63 · 1m Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/10/2025 · OR 63 parBHA61 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 17th of 21 · OR 61 · 6f Sft 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 61 par19/0461OR 61C8 @ Sligo 12/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f166y Goo 160BHA58 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 58 · 1m1f GF 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 58 par18/0658OR 58BHA59 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 59 · 1m160y Goo 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 59 parBHA59 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 59 · 1m40y Gd 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 59 par15/0759OR 59BHA58 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 58 · 1m Goo 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 58 parC8 @ Galway 27/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 2m130y Gd 154 · HIGHER CLASS27/07C8projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Galway?5th4th+1
2026-07-22NaasBHA587th4th+2
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA598th6th+2
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA597th5th+2
2026-06-18LeopardstownBHA583rd0th+2
2026-06-05Clonmel?0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1012/0515/0727/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/10/20259th14/126%43%+0.17
29/10/20257th11/142%54%+0.12
19/04/202617th18/15%20%+0.15
12/05/20267th22/10%57%+0.57
18/06/20263rd25/10%86%+0.86
01/07/20267th10/147%45%-0.02
15/07/20268th18/15%42%+0.36
22/07/20267th14/126%65%+0.38
27/07/20265th300/10%60%+0.60