9
It's Not His Fault
5yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 102
Roscommon · DNG Ivan Connaughton Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 210y
#15
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 9.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Thurles | BHA106 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Fairyhouse | ? | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Wexford | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Tipperary | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength16%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 27/10/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 46% | +0.20 |
| 29/11/2025 | 16th | 80/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 05/03/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |