19
Its Not Over Yet
7yo Mare · 10-12 · OR 96
Roscommon · DNG Ivan Connaughton Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 210y
#13
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Roscommon | BHA97 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Listowel | BHA98 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Bellewstown | BHA100 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Limerick | BHA102 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-17 | Navan | BHA105 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Punchestown | BHA105 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength82%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 29/09/2025 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 11% | -0.57 |
| 14/10/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 81% | +0.81 |
| 17/11/2025 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 8% | -0.39 |
| 31/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 47% | -0.24 |