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Itsaworkinmaniam

7yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 102

Roscommon · DNG Ivan Connaughton Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 210y

#12

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well beaten when last seen at Cork 9 months ago but had found improvement when second in Navan maiden hurdle previously and is worth monitoring in market on return/handicap bow. Tongue strap on first time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Kilbeggan 22/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 2m Goo 15822/08C8C8 @ Navan 20/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR - · 2m3f Yie 16620/09C8C8 @ Cork 12/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 2m4f100y Goo 16212/10C8projClass-projected finish: 11th of 18
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-10-12Cork?6th6th0
2025-09-20Navan?2nd2nd0
2025-09-08Galway?0
2025-08-22Kilbeggan?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0820/0912/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/08/20255th40/10%67%+0.67
20/09/20252nd16/116%93%+0.78
12/10/20256th6/168%29%-0.40