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16

Knocknagoran Lady

7yo Mare · 11-1 · OR 99

Roscommon · DNG Ivan Connaughton Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 210y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

19%

Place Prob

23%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fallen to a career-low mark and got back on the up in no uncertain terms when scoring at Limerick last month. Made light of 9 lb rise when taking 15-runner handicap hurdle at Kilbeggan (3m, good) since and is a must for the shortlist.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA87 @ Gowran Park 04/10/2024 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 87 · 2m Goo 160 · below its mark04/10/2024 · OR 87 par4/1087OR 87BHA86 @ Cork 13/12/2024 · Pos 3rd of 19 · OR 86 · 2m4f Yie 159 · below its mark13/12/2024 · OR 86 parC8 @ Punchestown 24/02/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 86 · 2m6f175y Hvy 153 · below its mark24/02/2025 · OR 86 par24/02C8OR 86BHA85 @ Fairyhouse 15/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 85 · 2m4f Sft 153 · below its mark15/01/2026 · OR 85 parBHA84 @ Naas 04/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 84 · 2m6f20y Sft 154 · below its mark04/03/2026 · OR 84 par4/0384OR 84BHA82 @ Down Royal 12/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 19 · OR 82 · 3m Goo 150 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 82 parBHA82 @ Wexford 27/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 82 · 3m Goo 150 · below its mark27/05/2026 · OR 82 par27/0582OR 82BHA81 @ Limerick 02/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR 81 · 2m6f120y Gd 149 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 81 parBHA90 @ Kilbeggan 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 90 · 3m180y Goo 158 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 90 par10/0790OR 90projClass-projected finish: 1st of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10KilbegganBHA901st1st0
2026-07-02LimerickBHA811st1st0
2026-05-27WexfordBHA826th6th0
2026-04-12Down RoyalBHA823rd3rd0
2026-03-04NaasBHA848th8th0
2026-01-15FairyhouseBHA857th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1015/0127/0510/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20248th9/153%46%-0.06
13/12/20243rd17/255%89%+0.34
24/02/20254th13/266%63%-0.03
15/01/20267th28/10%60%+0.60
04/03/20268th10/382%30%-0.52
12/04/20263rd16/116%89%+0.73
27/05/20266th8/158%62%+0.04
02/07/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
10/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24