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6

Mavetherave

6yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 103

Roscommon · DNG Ivan Connaughton Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 210y

#16

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced 6-y-o maiden. Hit frame in points and closely related to useful 3m hurdler. Best effort when runner-up in 2¾m Downpatrick maiden on good ground last summer before leaving W. R. Crawford this spring. Possibly needed run on stable debut last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Navan 22/03/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 2m Sft 16822/03C?4 @ Perth 25/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 2m47y Goo 157C8 @ Ballinrobe 26/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 2m6f131y Gd 15826/05C8C8 @ Downpatrick 15/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 2m5f180y Yie 158C8 @ Downpatrick 25/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 2m5f180y Gd 15825/08C8BHA110 @ Navan 14/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 19 · OR 110 · 2m4f Sft 156 · below its mark14/12/2025 · OR 110 parC8 @ Down Royal 20/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 109 · 2m1f33y Sft 157 · below its mark20/01/2026 · OR 109 par20/01C8OR 109C8 @ Down Royal 17/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 19 · OR 107 · 2m4f86y Goo 153 · below its mark17/03/2026 · OR 107 parBHA104 @ Bellewstown 04/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 104 · 3m116y Gd 150 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 104 par4/07104OR 104projClass-projected finish: 14th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04BellewstownBHA1048th8th0
2026-03-17Down Royal?11th11th0
2026-01-20Down Royal?5th5th0
2025-12-14NavanBHA11010th10th0
2025-08-25Downpatrick?2nd2nd0
2025-06-15Downpatrick?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0315/0620/014/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength32%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/03/20257th22/10%40%+0.40
25/04/20256th33/10%58%+0.58
26/05/20253rd22/10%86%+0.86
15/06/20254th3/184%70%-0.14
25/08/20252nd5/287%80%-0.07
14/12/202510th18/15%50%+0.45
20/01/20265th5/174%43%-0.31
17/03/202611th14/126%44%+0.18
04/07/20268th10/147%50%+0.03